EU Horizon 2020 project

A large scale EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation project contributing to the Trans-Atlantic Research Alliance and GEO.

62 Partners, 18 Countries

International integration of Atlantic ocean observing activities – further supporters / members are welcome.

Task 1.3

Observing System Design Studies

Lead: Ifremer (Pierre-Yves Le Traon)

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The goal of this task is to deliver objective guidelines to improve existing elements and/or implement new components of the IAOOS [D1.6]. The general approach is based on OSSEs. OSSEs rely on physical and coupled physical-biogeochemical models that realistically represent the space-time variability of the EOVs to be monitored, with data assimilation to optimally merge in-situ and satellite observations with models. They have been widely-tested in the framework of international programs such as GODAE OceanView and CLIVAR/GSOP (GODAE OceanView report, 2011). Within AtlantOS, they will be mainly based on the modelling and assimilation capacity developed by the European research community in connection with the Copernicus Marine Service. Approaches using statistical methods for optimal array design will be used to provide complementary insights, described alongside the design of the OSSEs [D1.2]. Climate model output will also be analysed to test the potential of IAOOS to detect expected changes in future decades, which may have different characteristics than contemporary variability. The task is organized in the following activities: -Improved design of the in-situ observing system for ocean reanalysis, analysis and forecasting of physical variables [MERCATOR, MET O, CMCC, CLS]. Simulated in-situ and satellite observations will be derived from independent ‘perfect model’ runs using Copernicus Marine Core Service models. Several OSSEs will be conducted to refine in-situ sampling requirements and deployment strategies in the Atlantic, with scenarios defined with AtlantOS networks. CLS and CMCC will test different models and methods for robustness, and air-sea interface measurements will be analysed by ECMWF and MPG. -Improved design of the in-situ observing system for ocean reanalysis, analysis and forecasting of biogeochemical variables [CNRS, MET O, MERCATOR]. This activity will focus on nutrients, oxygen and Chl-aobservations. Several scenarios of the distribution of Bio-Argo and Argo oxygen and other components (OceanSITES GO-SHIP/VOS) will be tested. -Use of statistical techniques to derive an optimal observing network for ocean carbon variables [CNRS, UNEXE]. Carbon system estimates from existing and future networks will be derived from the use of a statistical model together with a coupled ocean biogeochemical model simulation, allow us to quantify the relative performance of these networks. -Design of the IAOOS to support climate prediction and detection of change [MET O, NERC-NOC, MPG]. Coupled climate model simulations (as our best estimate of future change) will be used to quantify the observing network required to detect emergent climate change signals, with focus on the deep ocean and potential hot spots needing targeted sampling. -Synthesis of results [MET O]: Two scientific workshops (M12, M36) will also be organized together with international partners, and be used to synthesize OSSE results [D1.5].

Deliverables:

D1.2 Design of OSSE experiments Report: Description of the OSSE experiments including the scenarios to be tested, the role of each individual partner, and how results will be synthesized into guidance for observing networks. PM12

D1.5 Synthesis of OSSE results: Report describing the robust results obtained from across the models. PM36

D1.6 Model guidance for IAOOS evolution: Guidance from the OSSEs and statistical methods used to look at the optimal observing strategies to capture specific phenomena and to reduce error in key EOVs. PM42